The impact of public debt on eonomic growth: Empirical in VietNam

Abstract

The article explores the impact of public debt on economic growth in Vietnam between 1999 and 2018 using linear scale-up analysis (OLS). The results of the study analysis show that public debt variables (EXP_GR, DEBT) have a significant negative impact on economic growth (GR). Meanwhile, INV, OPEN have a positive impact on annual GDP growth (GR). Research has also shown that in recent years, Vietnam has relatively managed to control public debt within the safety threshold, namely less than 65% (according to the Law on Public Debt Management in Vietnam). In addition, the study also indicates that if government spending increases in the likelihood that the budget can meet without increasing the level of public debt, this spending will have a positive impact on economic growth. In addition, other factors such as public invest-ment, import and export have the impact of stimulating economic growth in Vietnam. Finally, based on the results obtained, our team also made a number of recommendations on public debt management policy for Vietnam.