Impact of public agricultural investments on global indica and japonica rice markets under climate change

Abstract

Indica and japonica rice are subject to different market structures, and the international prices of both varieties display different trends. We project and simulate the future global indica and japonica rice markets under climate change in the mid- and long-term, developing a partial equilibrium model, the Rice Economy Climate Change (RFCC) model that covers the indica and japonica rice markets in 24 countries and regions. The simulation results suggest that public agricultural knowledge and innovation system in Vietnam and China play a crucial role in stabilizing the international prices of indica and japonica in the mid to long-term in target countries, as both rice production markets become increasingly affected by climate change.