Global rice market projections distinguishing Japonica and Indica rice under climate change

Abstract

Rice is not strictly a homogeneous commodity, with the international rice market largely divided into the japonica and indica rice markets. Both follow different market structures and the international prices of japonica and indica show different trends. We projected and simulated the future global japonica and indica rice markets under climate change in the long term, using a partial equilibrium model. The Rice Economy Climate Change (RECC) model thus developed covers the japonica and indica rice markets in 24 countries and regions as the entire world rice market. The simulation results suggest that the international price of japónica rice will be more volatile than that of indica rice, and that both price indicators will exhibit different trends due to the impact of long-term climate change.